Here are a couple of recent posts....
On IHUB:
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Posted by: Trops
In reply to: Wick who wrote
msg# 19064
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Date:3/10/2008 2:30:53 PM
Post #<INPUT size=7 value=19065 name=msgnumber>of 19066<INPUT type=hidden size=5 value=5253 name=boardnum>
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<IFRAME style="WIDTH: 8px; HEIGHT: 8px" align=right marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://usas1.advfn.com/oasis/oasisi-i.php?s=43&w=336&h=280&t=_blank" frameBorder=0 width=336 scrolling=no height=280>
</IFRAME>Hey Wick brief overview from cyclone
osted by: cyclone101
In reply to: Ming who wrote msg# 18371 Date:3/9/2008 2:51:46 PM
Post #of 18498
I would be glad to hit a few "highlights" for you.......
Deals in the works and about complete
NY & NH
NY is a building, land, equipment we already own and want converted, but the town has opposed us and is stalling.... So we LLEG took them to court for an answer from the judge.....
-with this case, we LLEG are also countering the town for 10M in lost rev's, etc....
NH is the Paper mill we want to convert..... we already have 5M funded (with non toix
financing)... this is 5M of the total (aprox) 80-100M deal.....
-with this deal, we have a side bar arrangment with Fraser Paper to sell them bi-product (heat) from our plant......
-((this will be the Northern US's Largest Bio-mass plant at 50-70MW~~~ with this plant MBB & LLEG will bring several other
business to the plant and so on...))
Future site
NE is the only publicly mentioned place we also have in the mix..... not much said about this except the plans are progressing....
((my guess is all our focuss is turned towards NY & NH right now..... once these are done, NE & elsewhere will come to the front))
HOW LONG???
last heard we finally have financing done as of Last week or early this week..... str8t after that or this coming week, will focuss on getting the NH plant 100% done signed and pr'd with the wallstreet backer who is our financer.....
WAY FUTURE AS IN 3-4 Q......
plans to uplist.... this WILL be done as part of our arrongement for the backing/financing
-with this the "auditing, and filing have alraedy been started MONTHS ago......
predictions;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
could very well see a range from 1-5 cents after we get both the NH deal and the financers pr'd.....
the NY deal with the 10M would
secure a solid spot around 3-5c....
this is all just a guess at this point, but the nubers to justify would be 80-100M divided by a/s,o/s or 1.5B = .01-.05+
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On MarketMillionaires:
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- / user info --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt1><!-- message, attachments, sig --><!-- message -->The major website discussing this stock is InvestorsHub. As with lot of stock trading boards, the people there are enormously positive about the stock and the main purpose of the board is to reassure everyone that the stock is going to continue trading up. Yesterday, I made this post:
There is a general misconception which I see repeated here, which is that the rise in share price is in itself, an indication that this deal is on the verge of completion. This is not true, of course. The rise in share price indicates that many people believe that this deal will take place. So, the recent rise in price does not mean this deal is imminent. What has me concerned is that after such a huge run-up, the week would close without the company making any announcements to its shareholders. I mean, here you have all these people buying your stock--all on the promise that you are going to close this big deal any day now--and the week closes without even a muttering of when exactly this is going to happen. Certainly, if it IS going to happen next week, then they would know about it NOW. The "News" section of their website is still "under construction." What's up with THAT? They have an entire website (greenenergyfacts.com) devoted to answering questions about the Ellicotville situation, but they can't even get their "News" page going on their own website to keep investors up-to-date on the progress of the Berlin deal. Then I come to this forum to find little to no skeptical analysis of this situation. Yes, there is plenty of good technical analysis, and I appreciate that; but this has no bearing whatsoever on the status of this deal. Red flags should have been going up when trading ended today with no announcement at all from Laidlaw. I would like to know if anyone on this board has any hard information concerning the progress of this sales agreement.
As you might expect, my views weren't very warmly received. There were a few people there who were advising caution, but their sentiments were pretty much drowned out by the rest of the population. I made a few more posts where I asked people what their "Exit Strategies" might be should this company decide next week to postpone the purchase agreement. Of course, no one had a strategy, which was pretty silly. Many people have been buying into this spike-up, and this is ALL based on the signing of the purchase agreement. Personally, I am out of this
the moment any bad news comes out. The minute they announce that the signing will take place "later this month," I am dumping all my shares. I may buy-in at a lower point, but I'm definitely not hanging on through the stampede for the exit doors when Laidlaw announces another cancellation. I decided to leave InvestorsHub after my smoldering skepticism began to elicit
threatening comments from some of the board members. Christ. What idiots. Yes, the chart looks great here and the technicals are super, however, the story supporting the meteoric rise of the stock is based entirely on company press releases or enthusiastic commentary from other stock traders.
So, last night I was up late researching this stock. The first thing I want to re-emphasize is that the rise in share price is
not an indicator that everything's going rosy or that this deal will take place.
--What is taking place next week is the signing of the Purchase & Sales agreement. The actual
closing of the sale will take place several weeks afterwards. During this time, anything could happen.
--The only thing Laidlaw actually owns is the tiny facility at Ellicotville, NY, and the town has everything tied-up in the courts.
--Their "plan" for turning "bio mass" into electricity is not much different than the giant companies which, for years, have been generating energy by burning garbage. The only difference with Laidlaw is that they will be burning only wood. These other companies, such as Waste Management, are enormous and well-established.
--There is a lot of politics lurking behind the Berlin deal and it gets a little complicated. The mill is not being sold entirely--only a section of it is. The remainder of the facility will be owned by Fraser Paper, a large, old paper company based in Canada. The company isn't doing well and could very likely go out of business. Their plant in Berlin employs 200 people.
--Laidlaw has made some blunders along the way here which are a little hard to explain. Energy producers in NH sell their electricity by enrolling in this program where they "que" in line. Laidlaw did not enroll in this, describing the system as "ancient," and suggesting that their project was so fabulous in concept that there would simply be no question of the State buying their power. Well, Laidlaw was proven wrong a couple of weeks ago when they decided to obey the "ancient" NH tradition od registering for this process. What were they thinking of? Did they really think they were so special that they didn't have to do this? Were they just trying to skimp on not having to pay the $50,000 fee for registering? If $80M was really forthcoming, why would they be concerned about such small change?
--The politicians are in bed with Fraser Paper and the Wall Street crowd behind Laidlaw have worked their way into this. I'm still unraveling the politics here, but the bottom line is that residents of Berlin are not jumping up and down with joy that Laidlaw is going to be burning trees in the renovated paper mill. There's a lot more to the story here.
--There is concern over the complete lack of news regarding environmental issues. It is ALWAYS the case in large commercial transactions such as this that all sorts of environmental hurdles present themselves. Certainly, there must be all sorts of things related to this old paper mill. Why haven't we heard anything? I have heard this concern aired on some message boards outside of IHub.
I will write more later. Just be careful with this one. It's like a rocket ship sitting on the launching pad. Either it's going to the moon, or it's going to fall over and explode. We should be on our toes and be prepared to take our profits at a moment's notice. This could go up much farther--but when it turns South, it's going to happen very quickly.
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Danger Ahead!
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->I'm sounding the alarm on this one. While I still think this is a good play, the odds of this thing being a dud are rising every day. There are simply too many anomalies associated with the company. The political issues tied to this company are somewhat involved and it's difficult getting the right perspective hanging out with all the cheerleaders on these discussion boards. After a while, I was able to find several blogs written by residents of New Hampshire who had very strong opinions of Laidlaw as well as the political system which is behind them. Here's the scam:
The economy is bad, and for the people in upstate New Hampshire, it's really bad. Berlin is a crappy little mill town looking for a break. The Fraser Paper Company is the largest employer, but the company is not doing well and they may close their factory. Laidlaw is NOT buying the entire Fraser Mill. They are only buying a section of it. After the purchase, Laidlaw will construct another building which will house the turbine generator. The real issue, however, is not Laidlaw, or "Green" energy, or revitalizing the Berlin economy. The issue is about the paper company. Fraser employs 200 people. Their closing would be a major blow to the local economy. The matter of paper companies has always been a political issue. Basically, citizens are demanding that the state do something to alleviate the impact of unemployment, and the politicians who "come through" are guaranteed strong support in the polls. Charlie Bass is a major proponent of the Laidlaw project, and other politicians (such as Hillary Clinton) are eager to point to this plan as a "realistic effort" to create jobs, revitalize poor communities, and provide "Clean/Green" energy. Political support for this project is enormous because, it looks so good. The reality is that the northern areas of NH, VT, ME, and NY are very close to massive hydroelectric power sources. There is no pressing demand for more electricity (especially in such a sparsely-populated area of the country.) Electricity is simply produced as it is needed. The real demand is for jobs and a better standard of living. No one seems to have a plan, and with the sub Prime crisis pulling things down, these are very bad times indeed for people of modest means in these old mill towns.
Galloping to the rescue are Charlie Bass and his Wall Street friends. They have a plan. Their "vision" for the future is to build all these small power plants which burn wood. An "added benefit" for the Berlin facility is that it will shunt hot water to the old paper mill, helping to lower costs.
Now, what's going to happen is that the Fraser Mill may close and 200 workers would be thrown out onto the streets. The politicians will be able to point to the Laidlaw project as an example of how they are helping to address the problem of the continuing closure of these old mills. Hey... they tried, right? Maybe we just need more bio-energy plants! Yeah... I'm starting to see this as just some political centerpiece which really accomplishes nothing. The factory will employ 40 people (maybe) and then some more people will be needed to round up the old wood and drive it to the plant.
However, just because this is a scam does not necessarily mean that it's not going to happen, or that the share price is going to go down right away.... although it very well could. I think that with this new perspective in mind, a more realistic investing plan is needed; specifically: a viable Exit Strategy.
Monday will be very good, and the stock should shoot into the .004's without much problem. That's when things are going to get dicey. Anyone who is in this stock now should be on their toes. They may start bringing it down Monday afternoon while making some glowing announcement of the impending "deal." This could very well be a ruse to get people to hold onto their shares while the price steadily drops. We'll see. More later.
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